Author: Nicholas Gray; Dominic Calleja; Alex Wimbush; Enrique Miralles-Dolz; Ander Gray; Marco De-Angelis; Elfride Derrer-Merk; Bright Uchenna Oparaji; Vladimir Stepanov; Louis Clearkin; Scott Ferson
Title: No test is better than a bad test"": Impact of diagnostic uncertainty in mass testing on the spread of Covid-19 Document date: 2020_4_22
ID: 2jwuzfan_61
Snippet: It is important to notice that higher test capacities cause a higher peak of infections for the 10% quarantine release rate. This has a counterintuitive explanation. When there is the sharpest rise in the susceptible population (i.e., high rate of transition), the virus rapidly infects a large number of people. When these people recover after two weeks they become immune and thus cannot continue the spread of the virus. However, when the infectio.....
Document: It is important to notice that higher test capacities cause a higher peak of infections for the 10% quarantine release rate. This has a counterintuitive explanation. When there is the sharpest rise in the susceptible population (i.e., high rate of transition), the virus rapidly infects a large number of people. When these people recover after two weeks they become immune and thus cannot continue the spread of the virus. However, when the infection testing is conducted with a higher capacity up to 120,000 units per day, these tests transition some active viral carriers into quarantine, so the peak is slightly delayed providing more opportunity for those released from quarantine later to be infected, leading to higher peak infections. This continues until the model reaches effective herd immunity after which the number of infected in the population decays very quickly. Having higher testing capacities delays but actually worsens the peak number of infections.
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