Author: Luis Angel Hierro-Recio; Antonio Jose Garzon-Gordon; Pedro Atienza-Montero; Jose Luis Marquez
Title: Predicting clinical needs derived from the COVID-19 pandemic: the case of Spain Document date: 2020_4_6
ID: aidtsyo1_9
Snippet: ) is the number of cases detected up to date t, ) is the number of ICU admissions up to date t, and t=1, 2 …,T representing each day. In equation (2), variables are defined as log ( ℎ ) + 1) and log ( )23 + 1) to avoid missing observations from the first few days where the number of deaths was zero. For equation (1), the sample period spans from 08/03/2020 to 24/03/2020, while in equation (2) the period spans from 28/02/2020 to 24/03/2020. We.....
Document: ) is the number of cases detected up to date t, ) is the number of ICU admissions up to date t, and t=1, 2 …,T representing each day. In equation (2), variables are defined as log ( ℎ ) + 1) and log ( )23 + 1) to avoid missing observations from the first few days where the number of deaths was zero. For equation (1), the sample period spans from 08/03/2020 to 24/03/2020, while in equation (2) the period spans from 28/02/2020 to 24/03/2020. We left March 25 and 26 as out-of-sample observations in order to measure the forecast performance of the estimated model. The estimation sample is shorter for equation (1) due to the lack of observations. Estimation is performed through the OLS estimator.
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