Predicting the impact of asymptomatic transmission, non-pharmaceutical intervention and testing on the spread of COVID19 COVID19

Ira B Schwartz; James H Kaufman; Kun Hu; Simone Bianco

As a final remark pointing to further study, quarantines such as those who are performing self-imposed isolation, are similar to the case where people change their behavior in the presence of a fatal disease. Adjusting their behavior to avoid those who are contagious leads to a dynamic network where the connections depend on the state of the population of individuals. That is, the network of contacts is one that is adaptive [11] . Although there does not exist a vaccine currently, when one will be introduced, it will initially be a limited resource. Continuing controls, such as those adaptive contacts in which people can avoid contagious individuals, can greatly help with the extinction of disease [12] , especially in the presence of limited vaccines. Combining large scale testing, continued social distancing, along with vaccine control increases the probability of being able to bring the COVID19 6 . CC-BY 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.