Author: Abdulrahman, Ismael Khorshed
Title: SimCOVID: An Open-Source Simulink-Based Program for Simulating the COVID-19 Epidemic Cord-id: nexylnv4 Document date: 2020_4_17
ID: nexylnv4
Snippet: This paper presents an open-source computer simulation program developed for simulating, tracking and forecasting the COVID-19 outbreak. The program is built in Simulink with a block diagram display. The mathematical model used in this program is the SIR and SEIRD models represented by a set of differential-algebraic equations. It can be easily modified to develop new models for the problem. The program uses the outbreaks of China and Italy as test models. The infection and recovery rate functio
Document: This paper presents an open-source computer simulation program developed for simulating, tracking and forecasting the COVID-19 outbreak. The program is built in Simulink with a block diagram display. The mathematical model used in this program is the SIR and SEIRD models represented by a set of differential-algebraic equations. It can be easily modified to develop new models for the problem. The program uses the outbreaks of China and Italy as test models. The infection and recovery rate functions are treated as constant, variable, or a combination of the two. In addition, an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system is employed and proposed to train the model and predict its output. The program showed good matching between the simulated and the reported cases and it predicts the final size of the Italy outbreak to be in the range 230,000 to 330,000 infection cases as of July 2020.
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