Discrete simulation analysis of COVID-19 and prediction of isolation bed numbers

Li, X.; Cai, Y.; Ding, Y.; Li, J.-d.; Huang, G.; Liang, Y.; Xu, L.

Background. The outbreak of COVID-19 has been defined by the World Health Organization as a pandemic, and containment depends on traditional public health measures. However, the explosive growth of the number of infected cases in a short period of time has caused tremendous pressure on medical systems. Adequate isolation facilities are essential to control outbreaks, so this study aims to quickly estimate the demand and number of isolation beds. Methods. We established a discrete simulation model for epidemiology. By adjusting or fitting necessary epidemic parameters, the effects of the following indicators on the development of the epidemic and the occupation of medical resources were explained: (1) incubation period, (2) response speed and detection capacity of the hospital, (3) disease cure time, and (4) population mobility. Finally, a method for predicting the reasonable number of isolation beds was summarized through multiple linear regression. Results. Through simulation, we show that the incubation period, response speed and detection capacity of the hospital, disease cure time, degree of population mobility, and infectivity of cured patients have different effects on the infectivity, scale, and duration of the epidemic. Among them, (1) incubation period, (2) response speed and detection capacity of the hospital, (3) disease cure time, and (4) population mobility have a significant impact on the demand and number of isolation beds (P <0.05), which agrees with the following regression equation: N = P * (-0.273 + 0.009I +0.234M + 0.012T1 + 0.015T2) * (1+V).