COVID-19 crisis management in Luxembourg: Insights from an epidemionomic approach

Burzynski, Michal; Machado, Joël; Aalto, Atte; Beine, Michel; Goncalves, Jorge; Haas, Tom; Kemp, Françoise; Magni, Stefano; Mombaerts, Laurent; Picard, Pierre; Proverbio, Daniele; Skupin, Alexander; Docquier, Frédéric

We develop an epidemionomic model that jointly analyzes the health and economic responses to the COVID-19 crisis and to the related containment and public health policy measures implemented in Luxembourg. The model has been used to produce nowcasts and forecasts at various stages of the crisis. We focus here on two key moments in time, namely the deconfinement period following the first lockdown, and the onset of the second wave. In May 2020, we predicted a high risk of a second wave that was mainly explained by the resumption of social life, low participation in large-scale testing, and reduction in teleworking practices. Simulations conducted 5 months later reveal that managing the second wave with moderately coercive measures has been epidemiologically and economically effective. Assuming a massive third (or fourth) wave will not materialize in 2021, the real GDP loss due to the second wave will be smaller than 0.4 percentage points in 2020 and 2021.