Author: pierre magal; Glenn Webb
Title: Predicting the number of reported and unreported cases for the COVID-19 epidemic in South Korea, Italy, France and Germany Document date: 2020_3_24
ID: 9zeqigqa_15
Snippet: The transmission rate at time t is τ (t). Asymptomatic infectious individuals I(t) are infectious for an average period of 1/ν days. Reported symptomatic individuals R(t) are infectious for an average period of 1/η days, as are unreported symptomatic individuals U (t). We assume that reported symptomatic infectious individuals R(t) are reported and isolated immediately, and cause no further infections. The asymptomatic individuals I(t) can als.....
Document: The transmission rate at time t is τ (t). Asymptomatic infectious individuals I(t) are infectious for an average period of 1/ν days. Reported symptomatic individuals R(t) are infectious for an average period of 1/η days, as are unreported symptomatic individuals U (t). We assume that reported symptomatic infectious individuals R(t) are reported and isolated immediately, and cause no further infections. The asymptomatic individuals I(t) can also be viewed as having a low-level symptomatic state. All infections are acquired from either I(t) or U (t) individuals. The fraction f of asymptomatic infectious become reported symptomatic infectious, and the fraction 1 − f become unreported symptomatic infectious. The rate asymptomatic infectious become reported symptomatic is ν 1 = f ν, the rate asymptomatic infectious become unreported symptomatic is
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