Author: pierre magal; Glenn Webb
Title: Predicting the number of reported and unreported cases for the COVID-19 epidemic in South Korea, Italy, France and Germany Document date: 2020_3_24
ID: 9zeqigqa_47
Snippet: Our model incorporates social distancing measures through the time dependent transmission rate τ (t) in the third phase. This rate involves µ (the rate of exponential decay corresponding to these measures) and N the day at which they become effective. It is evident that these measures should start as early as possible, and should be as strong as possible. The consequences of late public interventions may have severe consequences for the epidemi.....
Document: Our model incorporates social distancing measures through the time dependent transmission rate τ (t) in the third phase. This rate involves µ (the rate of exponential decay corresponding to these measures) and N the day at which they become effective. It is evident that these measures should start as early as possible, and should be as strong as possible. The consequences of late public interventions may have severe consequences for the epidemic outcome (as illustrated in Figure 6 in [2] ).
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