Author: Ira B Schwartz; James H Kaufman; Kun Hu; Simone Bianco
Title: Predicting the impact of asymptomatic transmission, non-pharmaceutical intervention and testing on the spread of COVID19 COVID19 Document date: 2020_4_22
ID: 6okpsuvu_14
Snippet: We next extend of our model to describe the impact that testing a fraction of the population would have on the disease dynamic. We assume that testing captures only a part of the asymptomatic population, indicated as A 1 . Testing susceptible and recovered has no effect on the epidemic curve, but detecting asymptomatic cases requires significant random sampling. We further assume that widespread testing effectively removes A 1 asymptomatic indivi.....
Document: We next extend of our model to describe the impact that testing a fraction of the population would have on the disease dynamic. We assume that testing captures only a part of the asymptomatic population, indicated as A 1 . Testing susceptible and recovered has no effect on the epidemic curve, but detecting asymptomatic cases requires significant random sampling. We further assume that widespread testing effectively removes A 1 asymptomatic individuals from the population transmitting the disease through self isolation or quarantine. We model this removed A 1 population fraction by assuming an increased recovery rate for this class (since isolation is akin to removal). A fraction A 2 is not tested and will be able to spread the virus upon release of NPI as before. It is informative to consider the case of testing both with and without social distancing. We imagine two scenarios: In the first scenario, as soon as the first confirmed case is reported, a fraction of the population is tested but no social distancing is implemented. This is reported in Figures 5 and 7. The cumulative incidence for this scenario is shown in Figures 6 and 8 for 25%
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