Author: Odagaki, Takashi
Title: Self-organized wavy infection curve of COVID-19 Cord-id: mvnaf3h7 Document date: 2021_1_21
ID: mvnaf3h7
Snippet: Exploiting the SIQR model for COVID-19, I show that the wavy infection curve in Japan is the result of fluctuation of policy on isolation measure imposed by the government and obeyed by citizens. Assuming the infection coefficient be a two-valued function of the number of daily confirmed new cases, I show that when the removal rate of infected individuals is between these two values, the wavy infection curve is self-organized. On the basis of the infection curve, I classify the outbreak of COVID
Document: Exploiting the SIQR model for COVID-19, I show that the wavy infection curve in Japan is the result of fluctuation of policy on isolation measure imposed by the government and obeyed by citizens. Assuming the infection coefficient be a two-valued function of the number of daily confirmed new cases, I show that when the removal rate of infected individuals is between these two values, the wavy infection curve is self-organized. On the basis of the infection curve, I classify the outbreak of COVID-19 into five types and show that these differences can be related to the relative magnitude of the transmission coefficient and the quarantine rate of infected individuals.
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