Author: pierre magal; Glenn Webb
Title: Predicting the number of reported and unreported cases for the COVID-19 epidemic in South Korea, Italy, France and Germany Document date: 2020_3_24
ID: 9zeqigqa_27
Snippet: These formulas for I 0 , U 0 , t 0 , τ 0 , and R 0 were derived in [1] . Their numerical values, which are technically theoretic, are essential for identification of the exponential growth rate of CR(t) in the second phase. During the second phase τ (t) ≡ τ 0 is constant. When strong government measures such as isolation, quarantine, and public closings are implemented, the third phase begins. The actual effects of these measures are complex.....
Document: These formulas for I 0 , U 0 , t 0 , τ 0 , and R 0 were derived in [1] . Their numerical values, which are technically theoretic, are essential for identification of the exponential growth rate of CR(t) in the second phase. During the second phase τ (t) ≡ τ 0 is constant. When strong government measures such as isolation, quarantine, and public closings are implemented, the third phase begins. The actual effects of these measures are complex, and we use an exponential decrease for a time-dependent decreasing transmission rate τ (t) in the third phase to incorporate these effects. The formula for τ (t) during the third phase is
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