Author: Kathleen M O’Reilly; Rachel Lowe; W John Edmunds; Philippe Mayaud; Adam Kucharski; Rosalind M Eggo; Sebastian Funk; Deepit Bhatia; Kamran Khan; Moritz U Kraemar; Annelies Wilder-Smith; Laura C Rodrigues; Patricia Brasil; Eduardo Massad; Thomas Jaenisch; Simon Cauchemez; Oliver J Brady; Laith Yakob
Title: Projecting the end of the Zika virus epidemic in Latin America: a modelling analysis Document date: 2018_5_18
ID: 58y8mg8m_24
Snippet: We have assumed that the time varying transmission rate of ZIKV is a function of environmental and vector suitability that has not been reduced by effective vector control. The impact of vector control has been largely unassessed, or where it has been assessed it has been found to be ineffective. 48,49 Consequently, our findings are likely to be unaffected by the impact of vector control. Should effective wide-scale interventions be developed, th.....
Document: We have assumed that the time varying transmission rate of ZIKV is a function of environmental and vector suitability that has not been reduced by effective vector control. The impact of vector control has been largely unassessed, or where it has been assessed it has been found to be ineffective. 48,49 Consequently, our findings are likely to be unaffected by the impact of vector control. Should effective wide-scale interventions be developed, the model can be used to assess the impact of proposed interventions. The mathematical model was deterministic in nature, and especially for projections may under-estimate the variability in the number of cases.
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