Projections for novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and evaluation of epidemic response strategies for India

Patrikar, Seema; Poojary, Deepti; Basannar, D.R.; Kunte, Renuka

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization on 11 March 2020, declared COVID-19 as a pandemic. India initiated social distancing measures to combat the epidemic of COVID-19. The course of the epidemic of COVID-19 for India was predicted using stochastic probability–based mathematical modeling. METHODS: Data synthesis for the top few countries affected was studied for various factors affecting the epidemic. For projections of infected cases for India, the modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed/recovered framework modified for the effect of social distancing (Rho) was used. Simulation was carried out for 10,000 runs using python. Projections for infected cases and hospitalization requirement were estimated. RESULTS: The epidemic curve will peak in the third week of June in India with 17,525,869 and 2,153,200 infected people with reproduction number of 1.8 and Rho of 0.7 and 0.6, respectively. Compared with the baseline scenario of no social distancing, for transmissibility with R0 = 1.8, the reduction in infections due to social distancing measure is 78% (Rho = 0.7) and 97% (Rho = 0.6). Similarly for R0 = 2.2 and 2.4, the reduction in infected numbers slightly lowers to 62% and 66% with Rho = 0.7 and 92% and 75% with Rho = 0.6, respectively. With R0 = 1.8 and Rho = 0.6, the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) bed requirement is 107,660, whereas if transmissibility is high, the ICU bed requirement would increase to 1,994,682. CONCLUSIONS: The social distancing measures seem to have been working for India in absence of treatment in sight for COVID-19. Although with the government's response strategy of social distancing, the peak of the epidemic is extended giving more months for preparedness to the country; however, the sustainability of these measures is uncertain.