Author: Jonathan M Read; Jessica RE Bridgen; Derek AT Cummings; Antonia Ho; Chris P Jewell
Title: Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions Document date: 2020_1_24
ID: mt8h4rk5_12
Snippet: We fitted a deterministic SEIR metapopulation transmission model of infection within and between major Chinese cities to the daily number of confirmed cases of 2019-nCoV in Chinese cities and cases reported in other countries/regions, using an assumption of Poisson-distributed daily time increments (see Methods Supplement). We modelled the period from 1 January 2020 when local authorities closed the wet market implicated as the zoonotic source of.....
Document: We fitted a deterministic SEIR metapopulation transmission model of infection within and between major Chinese cities to the daily number of confirmed cases of 2019-nCoV in Chinese cities and cases reported in other countries/regions, using an assumption of Poisson-distributed daily time increments (see Methods Supplement). We modelled the period from 1 January 2020 when local authorities closed the wet market implicated as the zoonotic source of human infection (World Health Organization, 2020) up to and including 22nd January 2020. We only considered human-to-human transmission in our model, and made the assumption that following the closure of the market, no further zoonotic infection contributed to the epidemic dynamics. Coupling between cities followed daily-adjusted rates of travel estimated from monthly-aggregated full itinerary passenger booking data for January 2017, accessed from OAG Traffic Analyser database (OAG, 2020), assuming that travellers are drawn randomly from the origin population.
Search related documents:
Co phrase search for related documents- chinese city and daily time: 1, 2, 3, 4
- chinese city and epidemic dynamic: 1, 2, 3
- chinese city and human human: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
- chinese city and human human transmission: 1, 2
- chinese city and human infection: 1
- chinese city and major chinese city: 1, 2, 3
- confirm case and daily number: 1
- country region and daily number: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
- country region and daily time: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
- country region and epidemic dynamic: 1, 2, 3
- country region and human human: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
- country region and human human transmission: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
- country region and human infection: 1, 2, 3, 4
- country region report and human human: 1
- daily adjust and epidemic dynamic: 1
- daily number and epidemic dynamic: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
- daily number and human human: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11
- daily number and human human transmission: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
- daily number and human infection: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
Co phrase search for related documents, hyperlinks ordered by date