Author: Samir Soneji; Hiram Beltrán-Sánchez; JaeWon Yang; Caroline Mann
Title: Population-Level Mortality Rates from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in South Korea Document date: 2020_3_27
ID: lizwiate_9
Snippet: The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.23.20041814 doi: medRxiv preprint Finally we considered four alternative scenarios in which the prevalence of cases equaled 1%, 3%, 10%, and 25% of the population. These scenarios corresponded to 513,000; 1,538,000; 5,127,000; and 12,817,000 COVID-19 cases in South Korea, respectively (the population in 2020 is 51.3 million). We set 25% a.....
Document: The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.23.20041814 doi: medRxiv preprint Finally we considered four alternative scenarios in which the prevalence of cases equaled 1%, 3%, 10%, and 25% of the population. These scenarios corresponded to 513,000; 1,538,000; 5,127,000; and 12,817,000 COVID-19 cases in South Korea, respectively (the population in 2020 is 51.3 million). We set 25% as the upper bound because this value was approximately the prevalence of the US population infected with influenza during the H1N1 influenza pandemic of 1918. 11 For each scenario, we estimate the population-level mortality rate by age group and the ASDR. We compared the ASDR for COVID-19 in the observed pandemic and alternative scenarios with those of the 10 leading causes of death in South Korea.
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