Author: Jean Roch Donsimoni; Rene Glawion; Bodo Plachter; Klaus Waelde
Title: Projecting the Spread of COVID19 for Germany Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: neba2o7n_11
Snippet: The data from South Korea shows a reduction in the slope of the curve for total con…rmed cases, indicating a signi…cant drop in the number of new infections reported. Assuming the tendency continues, this would point toward South Korea progressively converging to a constant, similarly to the Hubei province in China. Japan on the other hand (as well as all other countries at this point) does not appear to slow down signi…cantly. Relating Sou.....
Document: The data from South Korea shows a reduction in the slope of the curve for total con…rmed cases, indicating a signi…cant drop in the number of new infections reported. Assuming the tendency continues, this would point toward South Korea progressively converging to a constant, similarly to the Hubei province in China. Japan on the other hand (as well as all other countries at this point) does not appear to slow down signi…cantly. Relating South Korean infections to population size, we get a long-run infection rate of 1 in 5,337, with a peak number of con…rmed cases of ca. 9,606.
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