Author: Jean Roch Donsimoni; Rene Glawion; Bodo Plachter; Klaus Waelde
Title: Projecting the Spread of COVID19 for Germany Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: neba2o7n_22
Snippet: In practice, individuals do not encounter sick individuals with this probability being equal to the share of sick individuals in society as sick individuals might stay at home or behave di¤erently (not shaking hands or similar) than non-sick individuals. We do assume, however, that the probability (t) to encounter a sick individual rises in N 2 (t) and N 4 (t) and falls in N 1 (t) ; i.e. (t) = (N 2 (t) ; N 4 (t) ; N 1 (t)) with @ =@N 2 > 0; @ =@.....
Document: In practice, individuals do not encounter sick individuals with this probability being equal to the share of sick individuals in society as sick individuals might stay at home or behave di¤erently (not shaking hands or similar) than non-sick individuals. We do assume, however, that the probability (t) to encounter a sick individual rises in N 2 (t) and N 4 (t) and falls in N 1 (t) ; i.e. (t) = (N 2 (t) ; N 4 (t) ; N 1 (t)) with @ =@N 2 > 0; @ =@ ( N 4 ) > 0 and @ =@N 1 < 8 In our quantitative solution below, the initial state follow from the number of reported sick individuals on 24 February 2020. 7 . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
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