Author: Jean Roch Donsimoni; Rene Glawion; Bodo Plachter; Klaus Waelde
Title: Projecting the Spread of COVID19 for Germany Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: neba2o7n_48
Snippet: In the long-run, i.e. when the epidemic is over, individuals will be distributed across states 1; 3 and 4: Some individuals will never get infected. They therefore remain in state 1 all throughout the epidemic. This …nding follows from the fact that the sickness rate 12 from (2) falls to zero when the infection rate (t) from (1) equals its long-run value : Note that 12 = 0 implies from (4) that 14 = 0 as well, hence out ‡ows from 1 to 4 end a.....
Document: In the long-run, i.e. when the epidemic is over, individuals will be distributed across states 1; 3 and 4: Some individuals will never get infected. They therefore remain in state 1 all throughout the epidemic. This …nding follows from the fact that the sickness rate 12 from (2) falls to zero when the infection rate (t) from (1) equals its long-run value : Note that 12 = 0 implies from (4) that 14 = 0 as well, hence out ‡ows from 1 to 4 end as well. The ratio is a widely accepted quantity in epidemiology and will be quanti…ed below. Some individuals that turn sick and are in state 2 die. They end up in state 3 in the long-run. Most individuals will be in state 4 in the long-run, either after having transitioned through state 2 or directly from state 1.
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