Prediction of New Coronavirus Infection Based on a Modified SEIR Model

Zhou Tang; Xianbin Li; Houqiang Li

Since January 23, 2020, all provinces across the country have adopted strict isolation and precautionary measures, and Wuhan has closed all public transportation facilities. China's response to the epidemic is mainly divided into three stages: the first stage is to control the source of infection and block transmission around key areas in Hubei Province such as Wuhan; the second stage is to actively treat confirmed patients, reduce mortality, and prevent Export; the third stage is to reduce the epidemic situation, thoroughly control the disease epidemic, and significantly reduce the contact rate between people. In this paper, the trajectory of the curve is Therefore, local governments and public health departments should focus their efforts on controlling the source of infection and cutting off the transmission channels, such as early detection, early isolation, and early treatment, to reduce the gathering of large groups of people, and to regularly and completely kill public toilets and public spaces.