Prediction of New Coronavirus Infection Based on a Modified SEIR Model

Zhou Tang; Xianbin Li; Houqiang Li

Since the New Coronavirus infected person has a latent period and is also infectious during the incubation period, the state change rate in the SEIR model depends not only on the current state but also on the past state. The current number of infections in I(t) includes two parts. First, it was transformed by the latent person, but because of the incubation period of the new coronavirus infection, the study by Li et al. Estimated that the incubation period is 5.2 days (95% CI, 4.1 to 7). This article selects the incubation period as 7 days, so at time t The base for converting from a latent person to an infected person is the number of latent persons 7 days ago; the second is the number of infected persons at time t. Models can be built based on the delay difference . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.