Potential dissemination of epidemics based on Brazilian mobile geolocation data. Part I: Population dynamics and future spreading of infection in the states of Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro during the pandemic of COVID-19.

Pedro S. Peixoto; Diego R. Marcondes; Cláudia M Peixoto; Lucas Queiroz; Rafael Gouveia; Afonso Delgado; Sérgio M Oliva

The COVID-19, caused by the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), has spread quickly after its first reported cases in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, posing a serious threat to health systems and the world economy [9] . Since March 2020, when the disease was classified by WHO as a pandemic [12] , countries around the world have followed protocols implemented months before in Asia, enforcing a variety of interventions, from mild to radical ones, based on social distancing, isolation and quarantine, to slow the disease spread, as recommended by WHO [10] . It is a common sense that the pandemic should be fought in two frontiers: by saving lives while avoiding the collapse of health systems, and by protecting the population from the economic impacts of the pandemic, specially its most vulnerable parcel [12] . For either goal to be achieved, health officials and government authorities should have reliable information about the disease spreading and its economic and social impacts, hence, for instance, the modelling of such spreading is not only a scientific achievement, but also a source of crucial strategic information. Indeed, a way of reducing the damages caused by the pandemic is to model how the disease will spread, in order to properly assign the available resources to locations where they will be needed the most.