Potential dissemination of epidemics based on Brazilian mobile geolocation data. Part I: Population dynamics and future spreading of infection in the states of Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro during the pandemic of COVID-19.

Pedro S. Peixoto; Diego R. Marcondes; Cláudia M Peixoto; Lucas Queiroz; Rafael Gouveia; Afonso Delgado; Sérgio M Oliva

be the entry at row and column of the transition matrix of day , indicating the proportion of registered movements from region to at day , and let , where is the total number of recordings which departed from at day , resulting in the actual number of recorded movements from region to in this day. We take as an estimative of the number of people which moved from region to region at the day. We consider the measure of mobility from to as in which is such that . The scale of that we consider is that of an hour, and is midnight at March 1st 2020. Also, we consider which is approximately , in which is the Basic Reproduction Number estimated by [11] from data about the disease spread in Wuhan, China, and 6 days is the mean incubation time of the disease.