Realistic agent-based simulation of infection dynamics and percolation

Nagel, Kai Rakow Christian Müller Sebastian

We present an agent-based epidemiological model that is based on an agent-based model for traffic and mobility. The model consists of individual agents that follow individual daily activity plans, which include, for each activity, locations, start times, and end times. Evidently, one can place a virus spreading dynamic on top of this, by infecting one or more agents, and then track the resulting virus dynamics through the model. Normally, the model is used to investigate non-pharmaceutical interventions. In the present paper, we undertake steps to better understand the infection graph. It becomes clear that the typical infection graph representation that connects individual people is an even more expensive representation than our original, already expensive data-driven mobility model. We then undertake first steps towards analysing the model with respect to a possible percolation transition.