Author: Yuan Zhang; Chong You; Zhenghao Cai; Jiarui Sun; Wenjie Hu; Xiao-Hua Zhou
Title: Prediction of the COVID-19 outbreak based on a realistic stochastic model Document date: 2020_3_13
ID: 0xzsa21a_140
Snippet: • Improved medical tracking dynamic: In this ongoing work, we are to introduce a more realistic dynamic for medical tracking. Our current model has already considered the latency between transmission and quarantine. While in this modification, medical tracking is triggered in a more physical manner by the affirmative diagnosis of the transmission source. In this new model the quarantine process of each exposed agent depends on his/her individua.....
Document: • Improved medical tracking dynamic: In this ongoing work, we are to introduce a more realistic dynamic for medical tracking. Our current model has already considered the latency between transmission and quarantine. While in this modification, medical tracking is triggered in a more physical manner by the affirmative diagnosis of the transmission source. In this new model the quarantine process of each exposed agent depends on his/her individual contact history. Thus an individual based, rather than compartment dynamic is needed. Then the parameters we have estimated can be used as a basis for the individual-based model.
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