Author: Spencer Woody; Mauricio Garcia Tec; Maytal Dahan; Kelly Gaither; Spencer Fox; Lauren Ancel Meyers; James G Scott
Title: Projections for first-wave COVID-19 deaths across the US using social-distancing measures derived from mobile phones Document date: 2020_4_22
ID: 87lxnslh_17
Snippet: We let i index the geographic area; in our analysis this is U.S. states, but it could be at any level of spatial resolution (e.g. country, city, etc). To make our results comparable to the IHME model, let t denote the number of days elapsed since a threshold death rate of 3 per 10 million residents was reached in a given area. Thus t doesn't represent calendar days, but rather a notion of "epidemic days." Let y it denote observed number of deaths.....
Document: We let i index the geographic area; in our analysis this is U.S. states, but it could be at any level of spatial resolution (e.g. country, city, etc). To make our results comparable to the IHME model, let t denote the number of days elapsed since a threshold death rate of 3 per 10 million residents was reached in a given area. Thus t doesn't represent calendar days, but rather a notion of "epidemic days." Let y it denote observed number of deaths in area i at time t. Letỹ it denote per-capita death rate. The IHME model assumes that the expected daily death rate λ it can be locally approximated by a curve proportional to a Gaussian kernel:
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