Author: Sarah F. McGough; Michael A. Johansson; Marc Lipsitch; Nicolas A. Menzies
Title: Nowcasting by Bayesian Smoothing: A flexible, generalizable model for real-time epidemic tracking Document date: 2019_6_7
ID: 6kq0ptlg_31
Snippet: The accuracy of predictions is related at least in part to the number of cases reported to the surveillance system in week 0. When a larger proportion of cases were reported with no delay, as was the case for ILI compared to dengue, the point estimate accuracy was higher. This is not surprising, as a large fraction of true cases reported initially leaves fewer cases left to predict......
Document: The accuracy of predictions is related at least in part to the number of cases reported to the surveillance system in week 0. When a larger proportion of cases were reported with no delay, as was the case for ILI compared to dengue, the point estimate accuracy was higher. This is not surprising, as a large fraction of true cases reported initially leaves fewer cases left to predict.
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