COVID-19 Pandemic: ARIMA and Regression Model-Based Worldwide Death Cases Predictions

Chaurasia, Vikas; Pal, Saurabh

COVID-19 has now taken a frightening form. As the days pass, it is becoming more and more widespread and now it has become an epidemic. The death rate, which was earlier in the hundreds, changed to thousands and then progressed to millions. If the same situation persists over time, the day is not far when the humanity of all the countries on the globe will be endangered and we yearn for breath. From January 2020 till now, many scientists, researchers and doctors have been trying to solve this complex problem so that proper arrangements can be made by the governments in the hospitals and the death rate can be reduced. The presented research article shows the estimated mortality rate by the ARIMA model and the regression model. This dataset has been collected precisely from DataHub-Novel Coronavirus 2019-Dataset from 22nd January to 29th June 2020. To show the current mortality rate of the entire subject, the correlation coefficients of attributes (MAE, MSE, RMSE and MAPE) were used, where the average absolute percentage error validated the model by 99.09%. The ARIMA model is used to generate auto_arima SARIMAX results, auto_arima residual plots, ARIMA model results, and corresponding prediction plots on the training dataset. These data indicate a continuous decline in death cases. By applying a regression model, the coefficients generated by the regression model are estimated, and the actual death cases and expected death cases are compared and analyzed. It is found that the predicted mortality rate has decreased after May 2, 2020. It will help the government and doctors prepare for the forthcoming plans. Based on short-period predictions, these methods can be used to forecast the mortality rate for a long period.