Population Size Challenge: Low Total Fertility Rate

Wu, Pengkun

The total fertility rate measures the average number of children who will be borne by a woman over her lifetime, and its accurate measurement can help better predict future population development. Despite the efforts of many parties to provide a measure, we still cannot systematically realize the determinants affecting the total fertility rate or accurately estimate it. This chapter conducts a meta-analysis to examine the determinants affecting the fertility intentions of China’s fertile women and the estimations of the total fertility rate in China. Thirty-one determinants affecting China’s total fertility rate are identified considering three aspects: demographic, social, and economic. The methods and data for estimating China’s total fertility rate are analysed, and the estimation results are compared. Notably, research on the total fertility rate is often limited by a lack of authoritative datasets. To alleviate this problem, this chapter compiles and summarizes the existing datasets used to report the total fertility rate.