Regression Tree Modelling to Predict Total Average Extra Costs in Household Spending During COVID-19 Pandemic

Lotfy, N.

Background: Prevention of coronavirus (COVID-19) regarding households has many aspects, such as buying masks, hand sanitizer, face shield, and many others. As a result of buying the previous items, the household spending per month will be increase during the COVID-19 pandemic period. Aims: To calculate the average costs of each extra item involved in households spending during COVID-19 pandemic and to predict the total average extra costs spending by households. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted at High Institute of Public Health (HIPH), University Alexandria. Exponential snowball sampling was used to recruit students at HIPH and their friends. Trimming costs was done to remove extreme low and high values. A regression tree modelling was implemented to predict the total extra costs spending during COVID-19 pandemic. Results: Most of the respondents were female (81%) and aged between 30 and 40 (56.3%). About 63.1% of families had the same monthly income while 35.4% had a decrease in monthly income. A significant reduction in days of leaving home before and after COVID-19 pandemic was observed (before; mean= 5.86, after; mean = 4.66, P=0.000). The extra spending in grocery was the dominated item compared to other items (mean = 707.2, SD = 530.7). Regarding regression tree, the maximum average extra costs due to COVID-19 pandemic was 1386 L.E/month (around 88.23$/month) while the minimum average extra costs was 217 L.E/month (around 13.81$/month). Conclusions: The effect of COVID-19 pandemic in households spending varies largely between households, it depends on what they do to prevent COVID-19.