Prediction of the COVID-19 outbreak based on a realistic stochastic model

Yuan Zhang; Chong You; Zhenghao Cai; Jiarui Sun; Wenjie Hu; Xiao-Hua Zhou

The differences among models mentioned above are hereby summarized in From the estimated parameters, we find that about 30% of the infected are asymptomatic, patients with symptoms are about twice as likely to pass a pathogen to others as asymptomatic patients, and current containment measures are effective to reduce the contact and transmission rate. The containment time of the outbreak for different regions are predicted. Time-varying R c is calculated and a rapid drop of R c is observed due to containment measures that governments take. We have also conducted controlled test and find that in addition of the control measures reducing the contacts of people, the current medical tracking policy also contributes significantly in containing the epidemic.