Author: Yuan Zhang; Chong You; Zhenghao Cai; Jiarui Sun; Wenjie Hu; Xiao-Hua Zhou
Title: Prediction of the COVID-19 outbreak based on a realistic stochastic model Document date: 2020_3_13
ID: 0xzsa21a_22
Snippet: Note that we exclude Hubei province which is the epicenter of the current outbreak in this study due to the following reasons: (1) the medical resources in Hubei province were overburdened at the beginning of the epidemic, not all individual with confirmed diagnosis could get immediate hospitalization; in fact according to the Official Press Briefing by the Information Office of Hubei Provincial People's Government (2020) , as of February 8, 2020.....
Document: Note that we exclude Hubei province which is the epicenter of the current outbreak in this study due to the following reasons: (1) the medical resources in Hubei province were overburdened at the beginning of the epidemic, not all individual with confirmed diagnosis could get immediate hospitalization; in fact according to the Official Press Briefing by the Information Office of Hubei Provincial People's Government (2020) , as of February 8, 2020, there were 1499 patients remained with confirmed diagnosis and serve symptom who had yet been hospitalized; (2) the diagnostic criteria were changed overtime in Hubei which resulted in a massive surge of confirmed cases in mid February (National Heath Commission of the People's Republic of China (2020a)); (3) the fatality rate in Hubei province was much higher than other regions in China. These features distinct the dynamic model in Hubei from the model in other regions of China, which will be considered in our future studies, see Section 6 for details.
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