Author: Richard A Neher; Robert Dyrdak; Valentin Druelle; Emma B Hodcroft; Jan Albert
Title: Potential impact of seasonal forcing on a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic Document date: 2020_2_17
ID: 3p2dl8yf_15
Snippet: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint with probability x. Humans develop immune responses to CoVs rapidly and subsequent challenge studies show reduced susceptibility and less severe disease for a year (Callow et al., 1990) . Antibodies against SARS-CoV-1 persist for several years (Guo et al., 2020) . This is consistent with the observation that about 50% of all positive samples in our data come from patients.....
Document: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint with probability x. Humans develop immune responses to CoVs rapidly and subsequent challenge studies show reduced susceptibility and less severe disease for a year (Callow et al., 1990) . Antibodies against SARS-CoV-1 persist for several years (Guo et al., 2020) . This is consistent with the observation that about 50% of all positive samples in our data come from patients older than 10 years with a flat distribution across age groups. In analogy to the attack rate of seasonal influenza, we assume humans suffer from a seasonal CoV infection on average every 10 years (b = 0.1/y). Furthermore, we use R 0 = 2.3, a recovery rate of 0.2days −1 , and an incubation period of 5 days.
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