Author: Richard A Neher; Robert Dyrdak; Valentin Druelle; Emma B Hodcroft; Jan Albert
Title: Potential impact of seasonal forcing on a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic Document date: 2020_2_17
ID: 3p2dl8yf_27
Snippet: In absence of control measures, outbreaks initially grow exponentially within well-mixed communities, and at a certain rate the virus will be carried to other regions and potentially seed new outbreaks. Such export to new locations is initially unlikely, but becomes next to certain once the outbreak size exceeds the inverse probability that a given individual migrates while infected. We have witnessed such rapid dispersal to SARS-CoV-2 to many co.....
Document: In absence of control measures, outbreaks initially grow exponentially within well-mixed communities, and at a certain rate the virus will be carried to other regions and potentially seed new outbreaks. Such export to new locations is initially unlikely, but becomes next to certain once the outbreak size exceeds the inverse probability that a given individual migrates while infected. We have witnessed such rapid dispersal to SARS-CoV-2 to many countries across the globe during January and February 2020.
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