Author: Rajesh Ranjan
Title: Predictions for COVID-19 outbreak in India using Epidemiological models Document date: 2020_4_6
ID: 3vntjg8d_22
Snippet: The data for the models have been taken from 'Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Data Stream' that combines World Health Organization (WHO) and Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) case data. For the exponential model, the data between March 11 and March 23 were used, when the number of reported infections were 62 and 499 respectively. For the SIR model, a longer range is required to obtain a reasonable estimate, and hence data for 2.....
Document: The data for the models have been taken from 'Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Data Stream' that combines World Health Organization (WHO) and Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) case data. For the exponential model, the data between March 11 and March 23 were used, when the number of reported infections were 62 and 499 respectively. For the SIR model, a longer range is required to obtain a reasonable estimate, and hence data for 21 days were considered starting from March 10, which is designated as the seed value. On this date, there were 56 individuals who had contracted the virus, out of which 39 were travel-related (stage-1) and 17 were person-to-person (stage-2) transmissions. There is no confirmed report of community transmission as of March 30. Hence, we consider that 3 . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
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