Propagation analysis and prediction of the COVID-19

LiXiang Li; ZiHang Yang; ZhongKai Dang; Cui Meng; JingZe Huang; HaoTian Meng; DeYu Wang; GuanHua Chen; JiaXuan Zhang; HaiPeng Peng

According to the comparison chart of the average number of people infected with a single infection (The basic reproduction number) (Figure 3 ), we found that the basic reproduction number had a great impact on the spread of the epidemic. With the increase of basic reproduction number, the total number of infected people will be more and more, and the larger the basic reproduction number, the faster the disease will spread. We set the basic reproduction number in the range of 3 -4.6 for simulation. It is found that when the basic reproduction number is 3.8, the simulated curve (yellow line) is better close to the official confirmed number curve (red line), that is to say, the real basic reproduction number in Wuhan should be 3.8. However, some scholars put forward the basic reproduction number between (2.8, 3.9), and others put forward the basic reproduction number of 2.2 [3] . . CC-BY 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.