Prediction of the time evolution of the Covid-19 Pandemic in Italy by a Gauss Error Function and Monte Carlo simulations

Ignazio Ciufolini; Antonio Paolozzi

Using the first 41 days of the number of cumulative diagnosed positive cases of Covid-19 in Italy (i.e., from February 15, 2020 to March 26, 2020) with a fitting function of the type of the Gauss Error Function with four free parameters (a distribution function which well fits the corresponding cumulative diagnosed positive cases in China), we obtained that the day of the flex (i.e., the day of deceleration in the number of daily positive cases) is in Italy, with a 95.4% probability, between March 23, 2020 and March 27, 2020; the 2-sigma uncertainty of +/-2 days was obtained with a Monte Carlo simulation using the first 40 days. In regard to the day of a substantial reduction in the number of the daily positive cases (which, for example, we took to be less than 100), this day will be in Italy, with a 95.4% probability, between April 17, 2020 and April 27, 2020; the 2-sigma uncertainty of +/-2 days was also obtained with the Monte Carlo simulation using the first 41 days. This predictions are statistical in nature and do not model the relevant factors of social distancing, and epidemiological and virology studies, which are outside the purpose of the present paper.