Author: Rajesh Ranjan
Title: Predictions for COVID-19 outbreak in India using Epidemiological models Document date: 2020_4_6
ID: 3vntjg8d_28
Snippet: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.02.20051466 doi: medRxiv preprint Though the exponential fit is not a good model for long term predictions, we present a pessimistic case by showing the results till April 30 using this model in Figure 2 (b). It should be mentioned that these models do not consider any effect of social distancing due to lockdown that was enforced on March.....
Document: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.02.20051466 doi: medRxiv preprint Though the exponential fit is not a good model for long term predictions, we present a pessimistic case by showing the results till April 30 using this model in Figure 2 (b). It should be mentioned that these models do not consider any effect of social distancing due to lockdown that was enforced on March 24. Though, this presents a very frightening picture as the number of affected individuals may go up to 0.5 million by April 30, with a single-day increase of around 90,000 patients. However, this situation is going to be highly unlikely because of: (1) inability of this model to account for eventual decay in an epidemic, and (2) measures due to social distancing that result in flattening the curve.
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