Author: Ira B Schwartz; James H Kaufman; Kun Hu; Simone Bianco
Title: Predicting the impact of asymptomatic transmission, non-pharmaceutical intervention and testing on the spread of COVID19 COVID19 Document date: 2020_4_22
ID: 6okpsuvu_49
Snippet: We then assume that controls are induced by requiring the population to remove 1 in 4 people, or reducing the effective contact rate by 25 percent. The results in Figure 13 are shown for both R 0 = 1.75, 1.2. In both cases, as expected the peak is reduced greatly, and shifted in time. The implication is that even with constant control of quarantine, the virus persists. In order to achieve an R 0 = 1, which is needed drive the disease to extinctio.....
Document: We then assume that controls are induced by requiring the population to remove 1 in 4 people, or reducing the effective contact rate by 25 percent. The results in Figure 13 are shown for both R 0 = 1.75, 1.2. In both cases, as expected the peak is reduced greatly, and shifted in time. The implication is that even with constant control of quarantine, the virus persists. In order to achieve an R 0 = 1, which is needed drive the disease to extinction, β < 36.55/year for the chosen demographic and epidemic parameters.
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