On predicting the novel COVID-19 human infections by using Infectious Disease modelling method in the Indian State of Tamil Nadu during 2020

Arsath Abbasali Ayubali; Sara Roshini Satheesh

As a significant element, SEIR model is presented in this paper, where there is an exposed duration between being infected and becoming infective (Incubation period). Various researches have been conducted on SEIR models which are presented in detail in (Sun, C., Hsieh, Y., 2010; Yi, N., Zhang, Q., Mao, K., Yang, D., Li, Q., 2009; Zhang, J., Li., Ma, Z., 2006; Zhou, X., Cui, J., 2011) . Treating such deadly disease such as SARS, measles, flue and tuberculosis this model played a significant role in controlling or decreasing the spread of the infections in the specified study region. More recent work on the effect of treatment on the dynamic behavior can be found in (Tang, Zhou., Li, Xianbin., Li, Houqiang., 2020; Wang, J., Liu, S., Zheng, B., Takeuchi, Y., 2012; Wendi, 2006) . Contrastingly, in traditional epidemic models, the treatment rate is presumed to be proportionate to the number of infective, which is almost not possible in reality. Therefore, in this paper assuming that the virus-infected person is not infectious during the incubation period and that the infected person did not take isolation measures during the illness, will not be suitable for the current situation as the COVID-19 is infectious even during its incubation period. Hence, this article first describes, 1. A modified SEIR model.