The impact of the coronavirus on the US economy based on the simple linear regression model

Yan, B.

In 2020, the outbreak of Coronavirus named COVID-19 has disrupted the US economy and is spreading globally. The impact of this disease on US economy is highly uncertain which makes it difficult for policymakers to formulate appropriate macroeconomic policies. In order to better understand potential effect on US economy, a simple linear regression model is adopted to predict the first and second quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2020. The difference between the predicted GDP values and the actual values could reflect the possible negative influence of COVID-19 on US economy in a certain degree. The results demonstrate that the unpredicted disease could significantly impair the US economy, which might induce the US to experience severe economic recession for a long period of time. The large impact on US economy shows that the government should take compulsory measures to stop the widespread of COVID-19 and stimulate the economy. © 2021 ACM.