Implications of the school-household network structure on SARS-CoV-2 transmission under school reopening strategies in England

Munday, James D.; Sherratt, Katharine; Meakin, Sophie; Endo, Akira; Pearson, Carl A. B.; Hellewell, Joel; Abbott, Sam; Bosse, Nikos I.; Atkins, Katherine E.; Wallinga, Jacco; Edmunds, W. John; van Hoek, Albert Jan; Funk, Sebastian

In early 2020 many countries closed schools to mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Since then, governments have sought to relax the closures, engendering a need to understand associated risks. Using address records, we construct a network of schools in England connected through pupils who share households. We evaluate the risk of transmission between schools under different reopening scenarios. We show that whilst reopening select year-groups causes low risk of large-scale transmission, reopening secondary schools could result in outbreaks affecting up to 2.5 million households if unmitigated, highlighting the importance of careful monitoring and within-school infection control to avoid further school closures or other restrictions.