Healthcare worker absenteeism, child care costs, and COVID-19 school closures: a simulation analysis

Elizabeth T Chin; Benjamin Q Huynh; Nathan C Lo; Trevor Hastie; Sanjay Basu

In the absence of a federal mandate for school closures, the decision of whether or not to close a school is determined by local authorities. However, lack of granular data has restrained previous studies to providing estimates based on state-or national-level data, underscoring the need for more detailed analysis 3 . The needs and capabilities of both schools and healthcare systems vary drastically across the United States, so county-level simulations of healthcare worker absenteeism and school closures could be more impactful and targeted for local communities than state-or national-level simulations. COVID-19 vulnerability factors such as social determinants of health (e.g. rurality, race) and complicating comorbidities, such as diabetes or cardiovascular disease 1 , vary geographically in the US, further highlighting the importance of regional analysis [7] [8] [9] .