Modelling optimal vaccination strategy for SARS-CoV-2.

Moore, S.; Hill, E. M.; Dyson, L.; Tildesley, M.; Keeling, M. J.

The COVID-19 outbreak has highlighted our vulnerability to novel infections. Faced with this threat and no effective treatment, most countries adopted some form of enforced social distancing (lockdown) to reduce transmission - in most cases successfully reducing the reproductive number,R, below one. However, given the large pool of susceptible individuals that remain, complete relaxation of controls is likely to generate a substantial second wave. Vaccination remains the only foreseeable means of both containing the infection and returning to normal interactions and behaviour. Here, we consider the optimal targeting of vaccination with the aim of minimising future deaths or quality adjusted life year (QALY) losses. We show that, for a range of assumptions on the action and efficacy of the vaccine, targeting older age groups first is optimal and can avoid a second wave if the vaccine prevents transmission as well as disease.