The impact of mobility restriction measures on the reproduction index of Covid-19 in the city of Queretaro, Mexico

San Roman Orozco, O.; Agraz Orozco, S.; Gutierrez Alvarez, I. A.; Radaios, V.

An observational study based on official data (CONACYT and Ministry of Health) was carried out in which the effective reproduction index R(e) and the reproduction index R0 are compared with the mobility presented by Google. Additionally, an overview of the development of the pandemic in Queretaro, Mexico. Highlights key events; such as the main government interventions and social factors that could affect the society behavior. A positive relationship is observed between Re, R0, and the levels of mobility presented by Google. This indicates that an increase in mobility is associated with the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. In February, a significant decrease in mobility is observed, which lasts until approximately May 1st. This period corresponds to an R0 and R(e) between 1.17 and 1.87. After May 1st, there is a sustained increase in mobility levels. And, as of May 16, the effective reproduction index R (e) and the reproduction index R0 begin to increase. This is expected as it reflects the delay between the infection and the diagnosis of COVID-19. The R0 and R (e) increase from 1.45 on May 16 to 3.59 on July 5. According to the baseline of normal mobility levels, an increase from -49.6% on May 1st, to -20.6% on July 5 was observed. Based on these data, we conclude that the relaxation of restrictive mobility measures should be reconsidered. Despite this, mobility restrictions must not be a unique mitigation strategy for controlling the Reproductive Index. A comprehensive approach is needed, which generates socio-behavioral changes that allow a further reduction in reproductive rates.