Projecting the end of the Zika virus epidemic in Latin America: a modelling analysis

Kathleen M O’Reilly; Rachel Lowe; W John Edmunds; Philippe Mayaud; Adam Kucharski; Rosalind M Eggo; Sebastian Funk; Deepit Bhatia; Kamran Khan; Moritz U Kraemar; Annelies Wilder-Smith; Laura C Rodrigues; Patricia Brasil; Eduardo Massad; Thomas Jaenisch; Simon Cauchemez; Oliver J Brady; Laith Yakob

. CC-BY 4.0 International license author/funder. It is made available under a The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the . https://doi.org/10.1101/323915 doi: bioRxiv preprint Results A gravity model, which assumes migration scales with large populations that are closely located to one another, provided the best fit the data (Table 1) . We identified substantial spatial heterogeneity in transmission (country summaries are provided in Table 2 The estimated incidence of ZIKV infections (median and 95% CI) were compared to the reported data to estimate the country specific reporting rate. The average probability of an infection being reported as a case was 3.9% (95% CI 2.3-8.1%) and this rate was lower within countries that only reported confirmed cases (4 countries) than those who reported both confirmed and suspected cases (22 countries) ( Table 2) The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the . https://doi.org/10.1101/323915 doi: bioRxiv preprint the distribution was over-dispersed ( Figure 4A and 4B ). There was a significant correlation (p=0.035) between the reported and estimated peak in the country epidemics ( Figure 4C ). The estimated peak in cross-validated simulations were correlated (p<0.001) with the model fit, although the 95% CI were wider ( Figure 4D ).