Projecting the end of the Zika virus epidemic in Latin America: a modelling analysis

Kathleen M O’Reilly; Rachel Lowe; W John Edmunds; Philippe Mayaud; Adam Kucharski; Rosalind M Eggo; Sebastian Funk; Deepit Bhatia; Kamran Khan; Moritz U Kraemar; Annelies Wilder-Smith; Laura C Rodrigues; Patricia Brasil; Eduardo Massad; Thomas Jaenisch; Simon Cauchemez; Oliver J Brady; Laith Yakob

Several mathematical and computational modelling approaches have been developed to forecast continental-level ZIKV transmission 5, [11] [12] [13] [14] . The focus has largely been on estimating which areas are likely to experience epidemic growth. It is apparent from the incidence in 2017 that many countries no longer reported an increasing incidence of cases. Due to either data unavailability or inaccuracies in the reported number of Zika cases in each country at the time of analysis, such approaches have either not used incidence data at all, [15] [16] [17] fit models to data on other arboviruses 14 or used selected serological surveys or comparing model outputs to incidence data not used within model fitting. 13, [19] [20] [21] Considerably more data are now available across LAC and spanning multiple arboviral transmission seasons. This provides a valuable opportunity to examine the nature of ZIKV transmission and the importance of connectivity and seasonality in assessing ZIKV persistence in specific locations throughout LAC.