Author: Kathleen M O’Reilly; Rachel Lowe; W John Edmunds; Philippe Mayaud; Adam Kucharski; Rosalind M Eggo; Sebastian Funk; Deepit Bhatia; Kamran Khan; Moritz U Kraemar; Annelies Wilder-Smith; Laura C Rodrigues; Patricia Brasil; Eduardo Massad; Thomas Jaenisch; Simon Cauchemez; Oliver J Brady; Laith Yakob
Title: Projecting the end of the Zika virus epidemic in Latin America: a modelling analysis Document date: 2018_5_18
ID: 58y8mg8m_5
Snippet: In this article, we apply a dynamic spatial model of ZIKV transmission in 91 major cities across LAC and fit the model to the latest data from 35 countries in LAC. We test several models to account for human mobility to better understand the impact of human movements on the emergence of ZIKV. The model was validated using a 10-fold cross-validation comparison to the data. We use the fitted model to quantify the expected number of cases likely to .....
Document: In this article, we apply a dynamic spatial model of ZIKV transmission in 91 major cities across LAC and fit the model to the latest data from 35 countries in LAC. We test several models to account for human mobility to better understand the impact of human movements on the emergence of ZIKV. The model was validated using a 10-fold cross-validation comparison to the data. We use the fitted model to quantify the expected number of cases likely to be observed in 2018 and identify cities likely to remain at greatest risk.
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