Author: Jean Roch Donsimoni; Rene Glawion; Bodo Plachter; Klaus Waelde
Title: Projecting the Spread of COVID19 for Germany Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: neba2o7n_24
Snippet: The copyright holder for this preprint . 0: 9 These contacts can lead to infections. Hence, we have an individual sickness rate of 12 (t) a (t) : Finally, when there are N 1 (t) healthy individuals, the aggregate ‡ow from state 1 to state 2 is 12 (t) a (t) N 1 (t) : 10 A further property an infection rate should re ‡ect is the fact emphasized by many virologists and epidemiologists that once an epidemic is over, around two thirds of the entir.....
Document: The copyright holder for this preprint . 0: 9 These contacts can lead to infections. Hence, we have an individual sickness rate of 12 (t) a (t) : Finally, when there are N 1 (t) healthy individuals, the aggregate ‡ow from state 1 to state 2 is 12 (t) a (t) N 1 (t) : 10 A further property an infection rate should re ‡ect is the fact emphasized by many virologists and epidemiologists that once an epidemic is over, around two thirds of the entire population will be infected. This includes individuals that had symptoms at some point and asymptomatic cases. We capture this fact by introducing the infection rate which is simply the ratio of the number of infected individuals (sick and in state 2 or without symptoms in state 4) to individuals that are alive,
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