Projecting the Spread of COVID19 for Germany

Jean Roch Donsimoni; Rene Glawion; Bodo Plachter; Klaus Waelde

where N obs 3 (T ) is the number of dead individuals at T: Employing this equation yields the value of 1=500 in table 2. A more open parameter for this epidemic but for which there is a lot of information for other epidemics is the long-run share of infected individuals, i.e. the limit of (1). We set this equal to 0:67 meaning that once the epidemic is over, two thirds of the population will have been infected and one third are still in the original healthy state 1. As there is a lot of uncertainty concerning this value, we consider this widely employed value of 2=3 initially. We will then also consider one tenth of 0:67 as a lower bound further below. This lower bound is motivated by observations from Hubei and South Korea discussed in section 2. 15 Another parameter which is hard to pin down is the share of healthy individuals in state 4 (i.e. they were or are infected at some point) that can infect other individuals. We set it equal to 0:4: We also undertake robustness analyses with respect to this parameter.