COVID 19 in Bangladesh: Assumption of possible infection and death

Shuvo, Sadik Hasan

Abstract: It is a painful job to predict the death of people. But sometimes it is important to predict the future and concern the government. A furious future is waiting for Bangladesh. Objective: Objective of the study is to assume the number of positive case and death till 30th December, 2020 in Bangladesh. Study design: This study was designed with systematic review and data analysis. Method: The study was completed by analyzing data available on website. First COVID 19 case in Bangladesh was identified on 8th March. Analyzing the data increasing rate/common ratio of infection and death has been identified. Then this common ratio has been used in the formula of multiplication series. Data of China, Iran, Italy and the USA was also analyzed to assume how the death and case number increased. Social issues of Bangladesh were also analyzed. Considering all these the assumption was made. Result: It has been assumed that by the 43rd week (on 30th December, 2020) of first identification the total case can be 17024322 and total death can be 86265 by 30 December, 2020. As this is an assumption this can be true, partially true or false. But the base of assumption is strong enough so the possibility of being true or nearly true is higher. Policy Suggestion: Government should choose properly one between two options. Either government should declare curfew or let people lead normal life. A very weak lock down for a long time does not make any sense.